Brutal, or… comparably tame? 2016-2017 gave an even lower total, 4.9 inches, and 2017-2018 wasn’t much better, clocking in at 7.7 inches. What does this mean for us in Missouri? Elsewhere, temperatures should run near normal. This is an unprecedented time for those living in western Missouri. Turing over to precipitation (2nd figure), one huge observation that jumps out immediately is the extreme tendency towards dry conditions in the Midwest. The blues and greens in this case would represent a wetter-than-usual pattern, whereas the yellows, oranges, and reds are drier-than-usual. After all, it’s already record-breaking. Is it usual for there to be dry phases? And I predict that we’ll see a winter that is somewhat snowier than usual, and many cities will likely receive as much snow this winter as they have in the past 3 combined. It may feel much harsher than it actually is, given that most around Missouri are currently used to snowfall amounts of less than half of average. For one, we’ve got an El Nino pattern, which looks like it might knock our chances for a decent snow season down a bit. If this stretches on for a 4th consecutive year, then it’ll truly be something for the record books. ENSO, or El Nino – Southern Oscillation, describes the state of the temperature of the Pacific Ocean near the equator. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. It has also been nearly 5 years since many Missourians have seen a major storm system. To put this in perspective, the last time I saw a big snow (6 or more inches in a single storm) was when I was a freshman in high school. But what does this mean for us? In general, winter 2018-2019 should be fairly unremarkable when it comes to temperatures. However, the super-active pattern and record early snowfall that we’ve seen in Missouri is just too much to ignore. As you can see from the chart, an early-season snowfall in KC was followed, in 8/10 cases in Kansas City, by a snowier-than-usual winter. Kansas City 44 ° Sponsored By. (Drum roll please….). Below, I outline specific predictions for larger cities around the state. As I pointed out earlier, Kansas City had never seen (until the past 3 winters) 3 seasons in a row with less than 10 inches of snow. Toggle ... with NOAA warning that its forecast does not mean the winter of 2018-2019 will not feature major ... periods of cold temperatures and snowfall … Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. 2015-2016 saw 10.9 inches, whereas 2016-2017 had an abysmal (and near record-low) 3.2 inches. Will Saint Louis manage to see a decent winter? I’ve witnessed setups that I haven’t seen in 4 or 5 years, back when snow totals were falling between 20 and 30 inches a winter. At no other point in recorded history has Kansas City ever seen 3 consecutive winters deliver less than 10 inches of snow. There are also signals that we could have a few major arctic outbreaks. Now, this is extremely tough to predict, and it’s almost impossible to nail down any further than a few weeks ahead of time. Yes. With more cold weather on the way tonight, and freeze and frost warnings covering much of the state, I (along with many others) are wondering, what does this upcoming winter have in store? Another thing I’d like to look at here is the fact that many Missourians have already seen snow this season. Well, Newton says that “Objects in motion tend to stay in motion.” Thus, it makes sense that chaotic jet stream patterns in the Fall might well equate to chaotic patterns in winter. I did struggle quite a bit with this prediction, given as our storm track could be quite strong this winter. I’m now a sophomore in college.

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